On April 7th, the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) indicated the prospect of renewable energy supply in 2030. The generated renewable electricity amount is estimated to be 270.7 billion kWh at maintaining the current supply pace, increase by 7-14% in comparison with the current level estimated based on present energy mix policy (power source composition in FY2030). In addition, they concluded that it will increase by 15-22% to 290.3 million kWh by further strengthening the policies. Since the policies, whose quantitative effect and feasibility are unclear, are not considered at present, further increase will be seeked by more intensive studies.
The executive office indicated at the “Large integration of renewable energy sources / Next-generation power networking committee” (Chairperson: Kenji Yamaji, Deputy Chairman Director/Head of Research Division, the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth). It summarized the prospect based on the certification and introduction pace by FIT(Feed-in Tariff for renewable energy) and the interviews in the meeting so far.
The capacity and amount of power generation that can be installed in 2030 was estimated for the five types of renewable energy.
For solar power, it is estimated to be about 88 million kW at maintaining the current supply pace. It is 64 million kW based on the present energy mix situation. However, quantitative increase through strengthening of policies could not be expected at present.
For more exact estimation will be done in consideration of the progress of policy debates on the various measures such as the measures for local governments by the Ministry of environment, utilization of devastated farmland by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and the measures for the introduction of renewable energy based on the basic plan on housing by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. Although FIT certified amount has dropped to 1.5 million kW per year, ANRE indicated the idea of expanding to 6 million kW per year by 2030 based on the opinions of the Trade Associations.
The onshore wind power is estimated to increase to 13.30 million kW at maintaining the current pace and to 15.30 million kW through strengthening of policies compared to 9.2 million kW in the current energy mix situation. It is aimed to shorten the development period by reviewing the environmental assessment.
The offshore wind power is calculated to be 17 million kW by 2030. Longer time will be required for the development of this system because this is not yet installed. However, it is estimated to increase to 3.7 million kW through the government support of launching the project.
Geothermal power generation is expected to reach up to 975,000 kW, almost double the amount currently installed. While the output of hydraulic power is expected to be 50 million kW by maintaining the current pace and strengthening of policies, the amount of power generation will be able to increase more by renovating the existing facilities. Biomass is estimated at up to 7.3 million kW.
On April 8th, the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) indicated the policy for further reduction of 8 million kl of crude oil equivalent on the energy saving amount in the energy mix (constitution of a power source in FY2030). It had been estimated as about 50.3 million kl reduction of final energy demand in FY2030 which was assumed based on the 1.7% economic growth. METI and ANRE compiled the tentative estimate that 58 million kl of the saving of final energy demand will be able to be achieved after careful examination on the extent of efforts in each sector. In addition to this, further reduction will be considered based on the efforts for a carbon neutral such as improvement of efficiency for automobile.
The estimate was presented at the Energy Conservation Subcommittee (Chairperson: Shinichi Tanabe, Professor at Waseda University) of the Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (Advisory body of METI) held on April 8th. The study on the measures for the demand side has been continued in consideration of reflecting them in the next energy basic plan since February at the Energy Conservation Subcommittee.
The ambitious estimate was made tentatively based on the energy conservation measures which were developed in the recent energy mix policy. While the energy saving targets by the measures with steady progress or setting further policy targets, are revised upward, the energy saving targets by the measures insufficient due to delay will keep as original by taking additional countermeasures.
The transport sector most contributed to the about 8 million kl of further saving. About 5 million kl of it will be by high efficiency of truck transport.
For the industry sector, about 2 million kl will be further saved by the consolidation of measures in the chemical industry. For the commercial and residential sector, it is estimated about one million kL of further saving through the review of top runner standards.